How the fund refills itself

How this model works

• The fund is designed to revolve: what the businesses pay back flows into the fund and pays for the next everypreneurs.¹
• It works like a liquidity plan: money in against money out, year by year, and each year’s closing balance is the next year’s opening balance. It looks for the outside money the fund needs so that its balance never drops below zero.²
• Each cohort gets its salary in its programme year. From the year after the payment-free years, each business pays the revenue share on revenue above the threshold, until it hits the cap or the paying years run out.
• The contract borrows three features from income-contingent repayment as CHANCEN eG agrees it in its “Umgekehrter Generationenvertrag”: nothing is paid in years below a minimum income, payments stop after a fixed number of paying years, and the total is capped. Two differences: CHANCEN takes its share of the whole income once it’s above the minimum, and a year below the minimum doesn’t count as a paying year. This model takes its share only of revenue above the threshold, and counts every year after the payment-free years.^3,4
• Businesses close over time. The default (85% after year 1, then 92% a year) leaves about 61% running after five years. That’s above the German average: of all new businesses, 38 to 44% are still trading after five years, and about 50% of those with employees. The assumption counts on the selection and support of everypreneurs making a difference.^5,6
• It works with expected values: the payment of a business that keeps running is multiplied by the survival rate and the share of payments actually collected. It’s a planning calculation with one fixed revenue path, not a simulation of chance.⁷
• Donors give monthly; 5% goes to payment fees. That 80% of them keep giving each year is an assumption: we haven’t found a retention figure for Germany, and in the US 71% of monthly donors were still giving after a year. Academy fees start in year 2. Costs, revenue and fees rise with inflation (2% by default, the ECB’s inflation target), so later years are in that year’s euros. “Every year, for good” is shown in today’s euros.^8,9,10
• All sums are nominal and undiscounted. That’s enough to tell whether the fund stays solvent. To judge what future paybacks are worth today, you’d use their present value, which is lower: a payment in ten years is worth less today than a euro today.^7,11
• This is a planning model, not a forecast. The two numbers that move it most are the share of businesses that keep running and the running costs, so test both.